The Beginner’s Guide to Reading a Moneyline

I have a confession that might disqualify me from writing a sports betting guide:

Until last year, I never really watched football.

I knew enough to participate in the cultural parts of it... occasionally. I could show up for a game, understand the general objective and recognize some of the names everyone else seemed to know. But I wasn't spending my Sundays following matchups, thinking about player performance or particularly concerned about what was happening elsewhere in the league.

Then I started sports betting.

And something unexpected happened.

I started paying attention.

A bet gave me a reason to care about a game I otherwise wouldn't have watched. Then I wanted to understand why one team was favored. That meant learning more about the matchup. Which meant learning the players. Which meant noticing injuries, coaching decisions and what was happening around the league.

Somewhere along the way, I stopped watching because I had a bet riding on the game and started watching because I actually liked football.

Fast-forward a year and I'm now in a dynasty fantasy football league, making trades, thinking about rookie value and caring about roster construction in a way that would have been completely foreign to me twelve months ago.

Apparently, I just needed an entry point.

That's part of why Worth the Bet exists.

Sports can be intimidating when you enter them as an adult. There's an enormous amount of assumed knowledge. People use terminology without explaining it because everyone around them has seemingly known what a moneyline is since birth.

I didn't.

So if you don't either, you're in good company.

Let's start there.

First Things First: What Is a Moneyline?

Of all the numbers you'll encounter when you open a sportsbook, the moneyline is probably the easiest place to start.

A moneyline bet is simply a bet on who will win the game or event.

That's it.

No point spread. No requirement that your team win by a certain amount. You don't need to predict how many points will be scored.

You're answering one question:

Who wins?

If the Bears are playing the Packers and you bet the Bears on the moneyline, the Bears need to win.

If they win, your bet wins.

If they lose, your bet loses.

The part that confused me when I first started wasn't the concept itself.

It was why one team had a + in front of its number while the other had a −.

So let's decode that.

What Do the + and − Actually Mean?

Imagine you open a sportsbook and see:

Chicago +135
Green Bay −160

Before we even worry about the numbers, look at the signs.

Generally:

− = Favorite
+ = Underdog

So in our example, Green Bay is the favorite and Chicago is the underdog.

Simple enough.

But there's one thing I wish someone had made very clear to me from the beginning:

Positive does not mean good, and negative does not mean bad.

You're not looking at a score.

You're looking at a price.

The sportsbook is essentially assigning different prices to the two possible outcomes based on how likely each is considered to happen—and other factors that affect the betting market.

Fortunately, there's a very easy way to read that price.

The $100 Trick

American moneyline odds are expressed around $100.

And before anyone gets nervous: that does not mean you need to bet $100.

You absolutely don't.

Think of $100 as a measuring stick the sportsbook uses to communicate the odds.

Here's the shortcut:

See a +? The number tells you approximately how much profit a $100 bet would make.

See a −? The number tells you approximately how much you'd need to bet to make $100 in profit.

So let's go back to:

Chicago +135

If you bet $100 and Chicago won, you'd make $135 in profit.

You'd also get your original $100 back, making your total return $235.

Now consider:

Green Bay −160

You'd need to bet $160 to make $100 in profit.

If Green Bay won, you'd get your $160 back plus the $100 you won, for a total return of $260.

That's really the foundation.

Once I understood that, the board stopped looking like someone had sprinkled random numbers next to every team.

But What If I'm Betting $10?

Much more my speed when I'm learning something.

You don't have to bet in $100 increments. The odds scale to however much you're wagering.

Let's use our same imaginary matchup.

If you put $10 on Chicago at +135, you'd make $13.50 in profit if Chicago won.

Your total return would be:

$10 stake + $13.50 profit = $23.50

If you put $10 on Green Bay at −160, your profit would be $6.25.

Your total return would be:

$10 stake + $6.25 profit = $16.25

Which brings us to another term worth knowing.

Profit and Payout Are Not the Same Thing

This is an easy one to overlook when you're new.

Imagine your sportsbook shows:

Bet: $10
Potential payout: $23.50

It can feel like you're about to win $23.50.

Not exactly.

Part of that $23.50 was already yours.

Your $10 stake is being returned to you along with your $13.50 profit.

So:

Profit = $13.50

Total return = $23.50

Different sportsbooks may label these figures a little differently in their interfaces, so the important thing is understanding whether the number you're looking at includes your original wager.

It's a tiny distinction, but knowing it makes evaluating a bet much easier.

Why Does the Underdog Pay More?

Because the outcome is considered less likely.

If the market believes one team has a significantly better chance of winning, you generally aren't going to get the same potential return for betting on that team as you would for taking the less likely outcome.

That's why our hypothetical Chicago +135 bet offers more profit on the same $10 wager than Green Bay −160.

You're taking more perceived risk.

The potential reward is higher.

But—and this is important—a bigger potential payout does not automatically make something a better bet.

That +500 underdog might look much more exciting than a −150 favorite.

There's a reason the payout is bigger.

The Numbers Are Telling You a Story

This is where things started getting more interesting to me.

Once I stopped seeing the moneyline as simply “the number next to the team,” I realized it was giving me information about the matchup before I'd researched anything else.

Consider these two hypothetical games:

Team A −110
Team B −110

Now compare that with:

Team A −500
Team B +375

You don't need to know anything about these imaginary teams to recognize that those matchups are being viewed very differently.

The first is priced like a very competitive matchup once the sportsbook's margin is accounted for.

In the second, Team A is a substantial favorite.

And that's exactly the kind of thing that made me start asking more questions when I was learning.

Why is that team such a heavy favorite?

Is their opponent struggling?

Is someone injured?

How have these teams been playing?

Is there something about this matchup I don't know?

Suddenly the odds weren't just something I needed to understand to place a bet.

They were giving me a reason to understand the game.

And for me, that's where sports betting unexpectedly became sports fandom.

Wait—Why Are Both Teams Sometimes Negative?

Eventually you're going to encounter something like this:

Chicago −105
Green Bay −115

And if I just told you minus means favorite, you might reasonably ask:

How can both teams be the favorite?

They aren't.

This is where we need to introduce one more concept: the sportsbook's margin.

You'll hear this called the vig, juice, or hold, depending on exactly what's being discussed.

Sportsbooks aren't generally offering perfectly fair, zero-margin odds. There is an edge built into the pricing.

That's why a very evenly matched game might show both sides with negative numbers instead of something beautifully symmetrical.

You do not need to master the math behind sportsbook margins to understand your first moneyline.

For now, just remember:

Two negative numbers don't mean two favorites.

They mean there's more happening in the price than simply identifying which team is expected to win.

We'll get deeper into that another day.

A Favorite Is Not a Prediction

This might be the most important distinction in this entire guide.

If you see:

Team A −300

that does not mean Team A is going to win.

It means the market is pricing Team A as the more likely outcome.

Those are very different statements.

Favorites lose.

Underdogs win.

Things happen during games that nobody anticipated.

That's sports.

And it's why I don't want Worth the Bet to become a collection of articles telling you which button to press.

Knowing how to place a bet is easy.

Understanding what you're actually being offered is much more valuable.

A moneyline is a price—not a promise.

The Part We Should Talk About Before You Bet

Understanding a bet doesn't eliminate its risk.

Sports betting is gambling. There is no strategy, statistic, expert, model or amount of football knowledge that turns a wager into guaranteed income.

And the fact that betting made sports more interesting for me doesn't mean more money automatically makes sports more fun.

You don't need $100 riding on a game to care about it.

You don't need $50.

You don't need $10.

You don't need a bet at all.

If you choose to wager, decide what you're comfortable spending as entertainment money before you open the app, not while you're staring at a bet you're suddenly convinced can't lose.

Because sometimes it will.

The goal of learning how betting works isn't to make gambling risk-free.

It's to make sure you understand the decision you're making.

The Moneyline Cheat Sheet

Here's the part to screenshot.

MONEYLINE 101

Moneyline: You're choosing who wins.

− usually = favorite

+ usually = underdog

+150:
A $100 wager would produce $150 in profit if it wins.

−150:
A $150 wager would produce $100 in profit if it wins.

You don't have to bet $100.
It's simply the reference point used for American odds.

Profit ≠ total return.
Your total return generally includes your original stake.

A favorite isn't guaranteed to win.

A bigger payout doesn't automatically mean a better bet.

And most importantly:

Odds are prices, not promises.

You Just Need an Entry Point

A year ago, I couldn't have told you much about a moneyline.

Now I can spend an unreasonable amount of time thinking about my dynasty roster.

There wasn't some dramatic moment in between where I woke up and suddenly became a Football Person.

I just kept learning one thing, and then another.

The moneyline led me to the matchup. The matchup led me to the players. The players led me deeper into the sport.

And eventually, I realized I wasn't learning because I needed to understand my bets anymore.

I had become a fan.

Maybe sports betting won't do that for you.

Maybe you'll learn what +150 means, place the occasional $10 bet with your friends and never develop the slightest desire to debate whether you should trade away a future draft pick for a wide receiver.

That's perfectly fine.

The point isn't to become an expert.

And it certainly isn't to become a gambler.

It's to stop allowing unfamiliar language to convince you that a space isn't meant for you.

You can learn football at 30.

You can ask what a moneyline means.

You can join a fantasy league without knowing every player on draft day.

You can sit at a sportsbook and ask your friends why everyone is suddenly excited that the line moved.

You don't have to inherit sports knowledge from your dad, your brothers, your boyfriend or anybody else to belong in the conversation.

You can simply get curious.

That's how it happened for me.

Learn the language. Ask the question. Watch the game. See where your curiosity takes you.

You don't have to know everything to belong in the conversation.

You just need somewhere to start.

Consider this it.